Just wait till 2028...

 

“Just wait till 2028 and things will go right back to how they were.”

Have you heard of "sociogenomics," or of "polygenic scores" ?

We hadn't when we tripped over an article in the New York Times titled A new scientific field is recasting who we are and how we got that way by Dalton Conly of Princeton University. It highlights scientific progress in genetics by answering some questions such as: “how do our genes predetermine our health, or our success in life.” The article in questions is an interesting case study in wokeness as well, but we won’t go into that.

In this post, we’ll try (1) to recast the new scientific context, now dubbed sociogenomics, a fusion of behavioural science and genomics, and (2) list a few important results. Here we go:

Throughout human history, genetics (“blood”, or “family line” in ancient parlance), was held to determine the future of our offspring. Ch. Darwin and G. Mendel made important contributions (Darwin, in this blog’s opinion, was the pivotal killer of “faith-based” believe systems (religions)). Then, F. Crick and J. Watson decoded the workings of the DNA—explaining how “sex” works in creating inherited traits, and we got used to the idea that specific traits are connected to specific genes.

 

But then came the discovery that some traits are not linked to one gene, but correlated to a whole profile of genes, which led to the construction of so-called polygenetic indexes. Initially, research focused on the genetic profiles (PGI-scores) of specific diseases--63% of breast cancer incidence can now be linked to polygenetic factors, or 71% of schizophrenia. But then it became clear that all kinds of things human are related to all kinds of polygenetic factors.

Take educational attainment: among adults who score very low on the corresponding PGI, only 7% finish college. Among those whose score is very hight, the number is 71%.  PGI’s have been created for more than 3500 traits, from sleep habits to right- or left-handedness and extroversion.

But that’s not all. PGI’s codetermine social behaviour. Children who have genes that correlate to more success in school evoke more intellectual engagement from their parents than kids in the same family who don’t share these genes. This feedback loop starts at the age of 18 month, long before any assessment of academic ability. In other words, parents don’t just parent their children, children parent their parents, somehow---somewhat mysteriously---guided buy their genes. And it turns out that genetic guidance happens everywhere. People in the US tend to marry people with similar genetic profiles. Very similar, in fact: spouses are on average the genetic equivalents of their first cousins once removed. Even more mysteriously, there’s the effect of lateral gene transfer (something very popular among microbes): your spouse's genes influence your likelihood of depressions almost a third as much as your own genes do. The presence of a few genetically predisposed smokers in high school appears to cause smoking rates to spike for an entire grade---even among those students who didn’t personally know those nicotine-prone classmates---spreading like a genetically sparked wildfire through the social network.   

Polygenetic indexes have spread rapidly and are now arriving in IVF-clinics. In the past, one could already screen embryos for some genetic diseases, but soon you will be able to screen them for happiness and success in life. It’s a brave new world out there. Be prepared.

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You may know this already. This is---in a minor sense at least---the end of the world. You may recall this 20 years from now---if you are still alive by then. We're in the Oval Office, on Feb. 28, 2025, in the presence of Donald Trump, VP Vance, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine. This is an article form The Guardian, the UK newspaper, written by David Smith. 

“This is going to be great television,” Donald Trump remarked at the end. Sure. And the captain of the Titanic probably assured his passengers that this would make a great movie some day.

Trump has just presided over one of the greatest diplomatic disasters in modern history. Tempers flared, voices were raised and protocol was shredded in the once hallowed in the Oval Office. As Trump got into a shouting match Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a horrified Europe watched the post-second world war order crumble before its eyes.

A group of people sit in a room as microphones loom overhead

‘Dummies for Putin’: Democrats defend Zelenskyy after ‘shameful’ Trump meeting

Never before has a US president bullied and berated an adversary, never mind an ally, in such a public way. Of course reality TV star and wrestling fan turned US president had it all play out on television for the benefit of his populist support base – and a certain bare-chested chum in the Kremlin.

Zelenskyy had come to the White House to sign a deal for US involvement in Ukraine’s mineral industry to pave the way for an end to three-year war in Russia. There was a hint of trouble to come when he arrived at the West Wing, wearing black – not a suit – and Trump greeted him with a handshake and sarcasm: “Wow, look, you’re all dressed up!”

Inside the Oval Office, which has seen much but never anything quite like this, Zelenskyy thanked Trump for the invitation. At first all was sweetness and light as they fielded questions from reporters.

There was a minor wrinkle over how much Europe support has given Ukraine, which ended with smiles, a playful but pointed tap on Zelenskyy, and ominous words from Trump: “Don’t argue with me.”

But the last 10 minutes of the nearly 45-minute meeting devolved into acrimony and chaos. Zelenskyy found himself ambushed by Trump and his serpentine vice-president, JD Vance. He was expected to sit back and take a beating from Nurse Ratched and Miss Trunchbull. He refused.

Vance said Joe Biden’s approach had failed and that diplomacy was the way forward. Zelenskyy challenged “JD” on this, noting Russia’s betrayals of trust in the past.

Vance, who once declared he doesn’t care what happens in Ukraine, was riled. Finger jabbing, he told Zelenskyy: “Mr President, with respect. I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media.”

Uh-oh. The politicians and journalists in the room could surely tell this was going off the rails. At one point the Ukrainian ambassador would put her head in her hands. She was all of us.

Zelenskyy tried to push back, asking if Vance had ever been to Ukraine. Vance got angry and spoke of “propaganda tours”. Zelenskyy tried to answer but Trump interjected: “Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel.”

The men spoke over each other. Raising his voice, the president said: “You don’t have the cards right now.”

Zelenskyy responded: “I’m not playing cards.”

Trump, pointing an accusing finger and descending into his worst self from the presidential debates, admonished: “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with world war three and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country that’s backed you far more than a lot of people say they should have.”

TV pro tip: Trump has spent so many campaign rallies warning about world war three that the phrase has lost its shock value.

Trump and Vance tried to scold Zelenskyy like an ungrateful child. Vance – who recently went to Munich to condemn Europe as being on the wrong side in the culture wars – demanded: “Have you said ‘thank you’ once?”

Zelenskyy tried to respond. Trump told him his country was in big trouble. He went on: “The problem is I’ve empowered you to be a tough guy and I don’t think you’d be a tough guy without the United States and your people are very brave. But, you’re either going to make a deal or we’re out.

“And if we’re out, you’ll fight it out and I don’t think it’s going to be pretty… But you’re not acting at all thankful, and that’s not a nice thing.”

Zelenskyy looked shellshocked and Trump commented on what great TV it will be.

No deal was done and a planned press conference was cancelled. Zelenskyy drove away empty-handed, having just endured own diplomatic Chernobyl. As for the rest of Europe, a bust of Winston Churchill, looming over the shoulders of Trump and Vance, may have shed a tear or two.

The never-ending story (don't ask)

 

Sunlight is the best disinfectant

We're getting concerned questions as to whether we are safe and well. Well, here's a picture of our face masks, hanging outside for sunny disinfection. We put them on when we go shopping. There are no shortages in the local Lidl, not even of toilet paper.

Donald Trump -- a comprehensive explanation of his success

Donald Trump, mocking a handicapped member of the audience

If you're like us, you've been kept awake at night ever since the summer of 2016---when Hillary Clinton, despite the pundits' communis opinio, never managed to escape the shadow of Trump's polling numbers, and eventually succumbed to them---so, you've been kept awake at night about/by Trump, and by the question: HOW COME.

And we are still being kept awake, four years later. Well, here's a COMPREHENSIVE EXPLANATION of the Trump phenomenon. 

Simple minds, like ours---with their reptile brains schooled by Occam's razor---always look for THE explanation, THE cause, when it's almost always a COMBINATION OF FACTORS that leads to serious accidents. 

This comprehensive explanation here, by Bobby Azarian, was published in 2018 on the blog of Psychology Today. It combines fourteen factors. It feels a bit dated at the edges with its references to HILLARY (who, we might add, was factor #15). Still, you'll sleep better once you've read it. It all makes sense. Trump makes sense, regrettably; he's not our fault---as opposed to Hillary---so don't let her disturb your future nightmares: 

Bobby Azarian Ph.D.

A Complete Psychological Analysis of Trump's Support--Science can help us make sense of the president's political invincibility.

Posted Dec 27, 2018

Whether we want to or not, we must try to understand the Donald Trump phenomenon, as it has completely swept the nation and also fiercely divided it. What is most baffling about it all is Trump’s apparent political invincibility. As he himself said even before he won the presidential election, “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” Unfortunately for the American people, this wild-sounding claim appears to be truer than not. It should also motivate us to explore the science underlying such peculiar human behavior, so we can learn from it, and potentially inoculate against it.

In all fairness, we should recognize that lying is sadly not uncommon for politicians on both sides of the political aisle, but the frequency and magnitude of the current president’s lies should have us all wondering why they haven’t destroyed his political career, and instead perhaps strengthened it. Similarly, we should be asking why his inflammatory rhetoric and numerous scandals haven’t sunk him. We are talking about a man who was caught on tape saying, “When you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the pussy.” Politically surviving that video is not normal, or anything close to it, and such a revelation would likely have been the end of Barack Obama or George Bush had it surfaced weeks before the election.

While dozens of psychologists have analyzed Trump, to explain the man’s political invincibility, it is more important to understand the minds of his staunch supporters. While various popular articles have illuminated a multitude of reasons for his unwavering support, there appears to be no comprehensive analysis that contains all of them. Since there seems to be a real demand for this information, I have tried to provide that analysis below.

You say...

Why books no longer sell

Many a literati complain that their books no longer sell. Many a theory circulate why this is so (the disappearance of gay book stores, the disappearance of attention spans, competition from other media, Trump, and so on). But yesterday---yesterday we discovered the definitive answer. Here it is:

Ceci n'est pas une pipe, mais un camp de concentration Trumpien.

No, wrong, this is the airport of Cannes, the main hub of the Cannes Film Festival for anything that moves about by general aviation. Ten years ago, during the Festival, this place was loaded with private jets---Learjets, Falcons, Netjets, Gulfstreams---all patiently waiting for the "talent" to be beautiful, blow insouciant kisses, sign contracts, fuck, collect awards, and then return to Hollywood. And now what? The place is practically empty---emptier, we'd say, than on a normal day of the week when we drive past to go to our discount Lidl supermarket which is just around the corner.

You get it? Nothing sells. Almost. This is not only about books, this is about media in general.

And the underlying reason? Well, a shift in the parameter values of the Power Distribution of course.

Huh? Stay tuned.

"Always the same" --- reblogged (Lokfire)

From Lokfire's brilliant site Hollywood hates me, here's another reblog:

Lately, I've noticed a local business has a sign on their marquee that says: "Always the Same." I think it's supposed to be reassuring, but I find it rather depressing.

Look, I know nothing wonderful is ever going to happen to me, but do you have to rub it in?

Goood evening!

Skyfall

(lyrics:)

This is the end
Hold your breath and count to ten
Feel the earth move and then
Hear my heart burst again
For this is the end
I've drowned and dreamt this moment
So overdue I owe them
Swept away, I'm stolen

[And here we get interrupted by an eager blogger who has to tell us that this is great folks, we have't seen the movie yet but this is great, it reminds us of Shirley Bassey, whom you possibly won't remember because you are too young, Shirley, the greatest singer of James Bond. Goldfinger, can you still hear it, Goldfinger, he's the man...OK, the Goldfinger song was still better than this one, but still...]

The nadir of American Conservativism

This text, written by Eric Dondero, appeared on the website LibertarianRepublican.net. We don't think it'll stay up for long, even though --- or because --- it cuts right to the chase of present-day American Conservativism. Wasn't it George W. Bush who said that "you are either for us or against us"?  Well, let's say to you: "You are either in bed with these people or not in bed with these people."

(you need to click on it for enlargement)

We think it'll gonna be a classic. People will remember it twenty years from now. Historians will cite it. This text, folks, this text marks the the moment when "conservatives," (not that this is an adequate term, better would be: "reactionaries") when they have really lost it, when they have really reached the point of no return, when they jumped off the cliff, when they hang in the air, when they crashed and shattered into thousand pieces. Many people will try to forget about this. Pretty soon. Don't let them! Remember this. Remember them (you need to click on it for readability, but just in case, here's a condensed version as plain text:)

The end of liberty in America: Only course of action now is to fight back, electoral politics not working
Time to tell any Democrats you know to fuck off and die
by Eric Dondero

[...]
Secondly, today starts a new course for my life. I've soured on electoral politics given what happened last night. I believe now the best course of action is outright revolt. What do I mean by that?
Well, to each his own. Some may choose to push secession in their state legislatures. Others may choose to leave the U.S. for good (Costa Rica, Switzerland, Italy, Argentina, Hong Kong, Israel). Still others may want to personally separate themselves from the United States here in North America while still living under communist rule' the Glenn Beck, grab your guns, food storage, build bunkers, survivalist route. I heartily endorse all these efforts.

The tragedy of the unfinished bathroom

We also do art, right? So, that's the excuse:

That's not the art, that's just the unfinished bathroom

We're sitting in a friend's chalet and the repair people are supposed to show up and finish the work in the bathroom. Don't let's get into the gritty-nitty details, we've waited all day and I finally send the following email to our friend:

...two boys showed up to install a new radiator...nobody else...so much for earlier assertions made earlier today..we've waited the whole day for them, could not go out...this is now the end of the second week we are without toilet on the floor...

(this is the entire email message, okay, the elliptical dots are very handy, no need any longer to finish sentences).

Here's our friend's reply:

Roy Lichtenstein Alka Seltzer (1966)

We missed rapture day

Rapture had been scheduled for May 21, and was then rescheduled for Oct 21 (an error in the calculations). Yesterday, folks. And we missed it.

 

An alternative explanations is, of course, that we all got raptured yesterday (or at least everybody we know), and are now in heaven. You decide.

Rapture retry: don't give up hope

Rapture warning in the Phillipines

Harold Camping, the author of the latest rapture prediction, went public following a few days of silence after the failed rapture of last Saturday:

"I can tell you when 21 May came and went it was a very difficult time for me – a very difficult time. I was truly wondering what is going on. In my mind, I went back through all the promises God had made. What in the world was happening. I really was praying and praying: 'Lord, what happened?'"

Meanwhile, our thoughts are with raptionado (or is it rapturionado?) Robert Fitzpatrick, who spent all his live savings of $140,000 spreading the word of the world's end, and also with Jeff Hopkins, who erected a doomsday sign on top his car and spent the past few months driving from Long Island to New York city to publicize it.

"I've been mocked and scoffed and cursed at and I've been through a lot with this lighted sign on top of my car," he told Associated Press. "I was doing what I've been instructed to do through the Bible, but now I've been stymied. It's like getting slapped in the face."

And here's the unabridged post-rapture Harold Camping:



Stay tuned for a new Q/A with Babette Bienpensant coming up soon.

Rapture reversal: rapture mockers stand corrected

Rapture mockers stand corrected as new rapture evidence is coming to light:

We've tried to reach Babette Bienpensant for comments, but she is holed up in an emergency meeting of the Metaphysical University.

Rapture recap: Hitler is not fooled

A friend sends this picture and writes: "Tell Hitler I found him."

Rapture recap: fooled again (2) --- the song

Rapture recap: fooled again?

Babette Bienpensant at rapture hour

We've asked Babette Bienpensant, Metaphysical University's rapture expert, to share her post rapture thoughts with us. Here is her reaction:

"Atheists and other rationality addicts have been quick to exploit certain shortcomings of yesterday's events and to prematurely throw the baby out with the winds of change. Yet most real Americans will agree that we have witnessed a rapture success of numerous dimensions, including a volcano eruption in Island, an earthquake in the gay-infested San Francisco Bay area, and many other occurrences of medium to high significance. We at the Metaphysical University are proud of our contribution and excited about our ability to again split the infinitive and share our thoughts in unprecedented ways."

Rapture: all you need to know

Our trusted colleague Babette Bienpensant from the University of the Metaphysical Sciences has gracefully agreed to answer a few questions:

Q: The end of the world has been predicted before...
A: And now it's going to happen.
Q: ...predicted before, even by Harold Camping, the prophet of today's event. His last end-of-the-world prediction was for 1994...
A: Yes, there was an error in his calculations.
Q: Not this time.
A: Not this time.

Harold Camping

Q: The hour, 6pm, that's which time zone?
A: Regardless where you are. It revolves around the world like New Years Eve.
Q: So, we can watch in on television.
A: Yes, it starts in New Zealand, then Sidney, and so on.
Q: Let's see, hasn't it started already?
A: The communication lines must be down.
Q: What is "rapture" exactly?
A: The end of the world. The last judgment as an action movie. No court proceeding. Instead, those who have been saved by Jesus will rise into the air (whence the term "rapture"). The condemned will stay behind. Expect a great earthquake rolling from city to city across the planet, just for starters.
Q: Are you sure?
A: Cry mightily unto God. The Bible guarantees it. Everyone will be weeping and wailing because they'll know in a few hours it'll come to their city.
Q: Nobody is weeping so far.
A: The communication lines must be down.  It's going to be a horror story of tremendous proportion.
Q: How can I save myself?
A: Find Jesus.
Q: That's all?
A: You need to find Jesus.
Q: Callers to Christian radio stations have debated what to do about nonbelieving friends and neighbors who will be left behind to endure the wrath of God. One caller in Oregon wanted to know if he should arm himself to protect his family from the doomed in his street who might be jealous that those who have found Jesus were about to go to heaven.
A: They will be too busy being tortured by fire to worry about seeking vengeance.
Q: Atheists are throwing "after Rapture" parties to celebrate the departure of the religious – or at least Christians – from their midst...
A: ...showing appalling disrespect for the religious feelings of real Americans.