Brexit -- what's next? --- Update

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Update:  Perhaps we've underestimated Labour (see last paragraph below). Gaby Hinsliff writes in The Guardian:

But politics is all about opportunism, recognising the moment when it comes and ruthlessly exploiting it...Corbyn’s goal-hanging strategy of letting someone else put in the hard yards over Brexit, before swooping in to electoral glory when it all goes wrong, has served him very well for two years.

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Original post:

The six fans of this blog have been clamoring---hold on, it’s only five now, five fans---clamoring that we shine our Machiavellian light on the future of Brexit.

It took us a little while---we were as confused as the prognosticators of The Guardian, for example---but today we had an epiphany, and now we are almost certain what's going to happen. We base ourselves on two axioms, namely:

(1) the axiom of egocentric rationality among the opportunistic supporters of Brexit, ie, Boris Johnson and his ilk. They, of course, are even more Machiavellian than we are, and so they will base their calculation on the

(2) axiom of memory shortage in the internet age.

Here’s their calculation:

(a) May’s Brexit deal will be voted down in Parliament;

(b) Confusion will rule thence; Labour remains split into semi-closeted Euro-skeptics and semi-closeted Europhiles, and unable/unwilling to rally around the Peoples Votes (a second referendum). Britain crashes out of the E-Union with no deal on March 29, 2019.

(c) There will be chaos (read this week’s detailed and fact-filled prognosis in The Economist): traffic around Dover backed up to Manchester; thousands of people dying in hospitals for lack of medication (disrupted supply chains); tear-gassed closures of manufacturing plants (disrupted supply chains), etc. Unemployment surges, inflation surges, housing prices slump. Google relocates to Berlin, unrest in Northern Ireland reignites. The government falls inside weeks. New elections bring about a Labour government.

(d) And now the second axiom: Inside a few more weeks, people have forgotten about its true cause, but the chaos will persist for months on end. AND SO, SOON THE PEOPLE WILL BLAME THE LABOUR GOVERNMENT for all of this shit. Inside a year, the not-so-new government will fall, and a refreshed, reasserted Tory government under the egocentric leadership of Boris Johnson returns to power at the very moment that misery has bottomed out and a semblance of normality returns.

The only factor left out of this calculation is the matter of residual rationality among the Labour leadership. Don’t bet on it.

Generation Five -- What is Michael doing?

Michael was supposedly working on the sequel to "This Is Heaven," then he was working on a novel about Jamie & Dex, and now...now he's working on a play, the working title being Generation Five. And, yes, you guessed it, G5 is a new, wildly-improved line of household robots. Namely: Dr. Eliza Gillespie, the infamous psychoanalyst lives in the near future and with Robert, a prototype of Generation One---the first generation of household robots created twenty-five years ago by her then-boyfriend Steve ('Frankenstein') Junior. Steve went on to become a master of the universe with his line of highly-inspired, highly intelligent androids and today is Eliza's 50th birthday. Steve will show up with a prototype of G5 ('Dolly') and all hell breaks loose.

Here's how it opens:  

Enter ELIZA (raincoat, umbrella, handbag, undefinable middle age).

ROBERT: A very good evening, Ma’am.

(ELIZA moans, exhales. She half-ignores ROBERT, who steps back.)

ROBERT: Can I help you, Ma’am?

ELIZA (flatly): No. Okay. Here…(hands him the handbag).

(ROBERT grips handbag, reaches for the umbrella.)

ELIZA (evading him): I heard something last night…DRIP, DRIP, DRIP (she casts a suspicious eye at the ceiling).

ROBERT: Not tonight, Ma’am. I…(points at the ladder)…I took care of it.

ELIZA (hands him the umbrella, reluctantly): This deluge must not go on, Robert. Please call the weather service and insist on a significant improvement of the climate.

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"Please call the weather service and insist on a significant improvement of the climate."

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ROBERT: They’ve discontinued their emergency lines. They have a help page now, with ‘Frequently Answered Questions’.

ELIZA (steps back): This is so cheap, Robert, can’t you think of a better joke?

ROBERT: I am programmed to do my level best, Ma’am.

ELIZA: Alas. Relieve me of my coat, will you.

(ROBERT helps her with the coat.) 

ELIZA: Any good news?

ROBERT: Almost. Algorithmically speaking…You hated them anyway, Ma’am.

ELIZA: Out with it.

ROBERT: Your patients, Ma’am. Tomorrow’s three o’clock patients.

ELIZA: They cancelled?

ROBERT (shyly): Mmhmm.  

ELIZA: Good for them. I forgot their names. What are their names?

ROBERT: That was an issue, yes. You hadn’t used their names in fifteen years, they said. It ‘was the drop that made the camel overflow’, they said. Charles and Charles.

ELIZA (laughs): Charles and Charles?

ROBERT: Were their names, yes. 

ELIZA: They cancelled? I’ll have the afternoon off. Why’s that bad news? You mean like in…forever? Eternally? Gone? (Swipes her sole, as if extinguishing a bug). Like that?

ROBERT (shyly): Mmhmm.

ELIZA: Charles and Charles? A gay couple? You must be joking. They were straight. The woman, the female, she had a mustache. That was their problem. They didn’t have an Oedipus, but she had a mustache. I could never mention her facial hair, of course, it would have been the end of it. And…yes, it would have been politically incorrect. We are not politically incorrect. 

ROBERT: Indeed, Ma’am.

You've seen this gif before, never mind

Portugal (16)

You know, we intend to move to Nazaré, located between Porto and Lisbon on the Atlantic Coast. This year, in January, it recorded the highest surfable wave on the planet. And now this (give it 30 sec):

Looking at Hadrian irreverently --- a new review of "The Fountain"

Amos Lassen

Cool, folks, there's a new review of "The Fountain" out, and it's by LGBT-lit-authority Amos Lassen. He normally reviews people like Hanna Arendt and Albert Einstein. And now this: 

I had a great time reading this new and revised history of Hadrian in Geneva. Ampersant is a wonderful satirist and he writes so casually you actually feel like you are having a conversation with him. I am sure that there are some historical facts here (...) This is so unbelievable, it must be true: Roman Emperor Hadrian---yes, him of the liaison with the Greek youth Antinous---is asked to help the Swiss with a crazy, all-male Nordic tribe (...) I can promise you that you will have quite a few laughs.

"Click"

How we feel today

(not quite true, but anyhow:)

Die menschliche Dummheit ist grenzenlos...

...my father said at least once per day, and here we have another proof---if needed---in Donald Trump's tweet of today yesterday, which is about the connections between his campaign and Russia. Here it is:

When Mueller does his final report, will he be covering all of his conflicts of interest in a preamble, will he be recommending action on all of the crimes of many kinds from those “on the other side”(whatever happened to Podesta?), and will he be putting in statements from…..

….hundreds of people closely involved with my campaign who never met, saw or spoke to a Russian during this period? So many campaign workers, people inside from the beginning, ask me why they have not been called (they want to be). There was NO Collusion & Mueller knows it!

Yes, Donald. There were a lot of people in your campaign (we assume) that never "met, saw or spoke to a Russian". But now look at these little Fenn-diagrams, the most elementary things in set theory:

In your case, we have to deal with the intersection of Russians  (A in the graphic, say) and members of the Trump Campaign (B, say). If they "met, saw, or spoke", they intersect. If they didn't, they do not intersect. The question before us is NOT whether ALL members of your campaign met with Russians, the question is whether SOME did, and, in particular, whether some influential people did---like Donald jr, say, or Mr. Manafort, Mr. Flinn, or Mr. Donald Trump senior. That little green space up there? In the picture above, top-right?

A fallacy is not lying, technically---lying, remember, an activity you despise in others---but it is just as  misleading, and your fallacy here is called "shifting sands." You shift the question whether SOME members of your campaign conspired with Russia to the question whether ALL members of your campaign conspired with Russia. And surely, the answer is...("President Putin, may I introduce you to Sam, my campaign janitor?")...the answer is NO.

Now, lets shift the sand again: What if SOME people, like your base, would be ALL people?

Where would WE be? Where would YOU be? Why would you have to fight for your survival at the hands of  Robert Mueller, a retired FBI director appointed by George W. Bush?

IQ-test

Who said this about whom:

"They are screaming and shouting at people, horribly threatening them..."

(a) Robert S. Mueller about Donald Trump?
(b) Donald Trump about Robert S. Mueller?

What happens when your travel documents expire...

...and you live in France, and you have a Dutch passport, and it's late November...

Photo (as always) by Jason Yoon

...you have to go to Paris, to the embassy. It's the only place where you can renew your passport, and you have to show up in the flesh, you can't do it per mail. Fortunately, the Eiffel tower was in walking distance.

"Je ne regrette rien" -- Edith Piaf -- AI version

What's in a name

You need to know a little bit about American politics for this one:

Go and vote your ass off!

Portugal (15) -- Going home

Eventually, after a month and a half, we went back home. It took three days. Michael is fairly exhausted. We spent the second night in Carcassonne, east of Lourdes, north of the Pyrenees, a medieval fortified town and now a very French city. Here's yesterday's view of the city from the fortified town:

Pictures, as always, by Chang ("Jason") Yoon

Portugal (14) --- Coimbra

So, we went to Coimbra. This is the central square of the university, one of the oldest institutions of higher learning in the world.

Portugal (13)

All this happened yesterday, halfway between Nazaré and San Martinho do Porto, the next town south. Everybody here looks like our friend Glenn from Baltimore.

And, yes, we suspected it already---Nazaré and Baltimore share the same latitude, with Baltimore at 39.2904° N and us at 39.6012° N. Haha---Baltimore is still a bit to the south. We are going to move here, folks, yes we are. Don't blame us, internet is good. 

There are differences, of course, an important one being the climate. This is the west coast of a continent which is, at this latitude, still untouched by the Gulf Stream, meaning the ocean is cold, meaning the air on the coast is cool. Average highs during July and August in Nazaré are around 22.5°C and 22.9°C respectively (72.5°F and 73.2°F). Compare this to Berlin, Germany, where the numbers are 25.0° C and 24.5°C, or Baltimore, with 31.7°C (89.0°F) and 30.6°C (87.0°F). We have basically a Californian coast climate, and there's fog, although we haven't seen much of it yet.

Bona tarde.

We came to renew our Saudi passports

Lisbon -- Portugal (12)

(Pictures, as always, by Chang Man ("Jason") Yoon)

More beach --- Portugal (11)

This is a few kilometers north of Nazaré, the town with the largest surfable waves in the world:

Yesterday -- Connubial bliss -- Portugal (10)

You must admit: we are normally not nerving our few fans with selfies, but there you have it: Chang (Jason), and his partner Michael on the Praia do Norte of Nazaré, Portugal, the beach with the larges surfable waves on the planet.

Quote--unquote

More quotes in Michael Ampersant's This Is Heaven

Aus aktuellem Anlass

Quote--unquote

More quotes in Michael Ampersant's This Is Heaven