What happens to Ukraine: "It's up to Europe" by Paul Krugman

 From Krugman's Substack account:

Like many other Americans at the time, I spent the afternoon of the bicentennial — July 4, 1976 — at a cookout. In my case the cookout was in a park in Lisbon, Portugal, hosted by the American ambassador, who read to us a special message from Gerald Ford. I’ve always wondered how the embassy managed to find hot dogs — not exactly a Portuguese staple — for the occasion.

There were few Americans in Portugal at the time. Lisbon in 1976 was a sleepy backwater — not the tourist and mobile worker hotspot that it is today. And the U.S. deliberately kept a low profile. Portugal had overthrown its fascist dictator only two years earlier, and many people there were obsessed with the idea that Henry Kissinger, who had warned that Portugal might go Communist, would try to engineer a coup like the one that overthrew Chile’s Salvador Allende in 1973. There were graffiti on the walls saying “Morte ao CIA” (death to the CIA) although some of them added, in fresher paint, “e o KGB.”

So America tried to stay out of the limelight. In fact, there were so few official representatives of the U.S. government around that the cookout had to be filled out with lots of staffers from other Western embassies.

Oh, and what was I doing there? I was part of a small group of MIT graduate students who spent the summer working for Portugal’s central bank. That’s me below, on the far right:

Anyway, the point was that Portugal’s democratic forces needed all the help they could get. But America, which was persona non grata at the time, believed that it would be counterproductive to intervene in any visible way. So it was up to the Europeans to save a still-fragile democracy.

And they rose to the occasion. I don’t pretend to understand all the ins and outs, but by all accounts the Germans in particular provided crucial aid to pro-democracy parties, especially Portugal’s Socialists (who were really moderate social democrats.) The cause of democracy was also helped by the prospect that if Portugal remained democratic, it could expect not simply to join the European Union but to receive large-scale aid (“cohesion funds.”)

The reason I bring up this old history is that we have once again reached a moment when the future of democracy depends on Europe rising to the occasion.

Of course, the situation now is far more fraught than it was that long-ago summer. This time the democracy at risk is Ukraine, which is fighting for its life against Russian aggression. And the reason America won’t be there for a democracy in danger isn’t fear of political blowback: it’s the fact that the president of the United States has made it clear that he’s anti-democracy, admires Vladimir Putin and wants Russian aggression to succeed.

So it’s now up to European nations to rescue Ukraine.

Does Europe have the resources to save Ukraine? Of course it does. The European Union and the UK combined have ten times Russia’s GDP. European aid to Ukraine has long exceeded US aid, and Europe could easily replace America’s share. In the early stages of the war, the US provided the bulk of the military aid, but even that gap has greatly narrowed:

Source: Kiel Institute

Can Europe step up fast enough? There are, as I understand it, some important weapons systems America may stop supplying that Europe can’t quickly replace. But as Phillips O’Brien has pointed out, we’ve been hearing predictions of Ukraine’s imminent collapse for at least a year, when the reality is that Russia has achieved only minor and meaningless territorial gains at immense cost in men and materiel. When Trump told Zelensky

You don't have the cards. You're buried there, people are dying, you're running low on soldiers.

he was almost surely wrong. Ukraine can probably hang on long enough, even with a total cutoff of US aid, for Europe to come to its rescue.

So it really comes down to political will.

Trump probably imagines that he can bully European leaders into standing aside and letting his friend (or boss?) Vladimir win. And given Europe’s history of timidity, you can understand why he might think that. But European leaders are certainly saying the right things now and also talking, in a way I’ve never seen before, about in effect declaring independence from the United States.

If Trump nonetheless tries to pressure Europe into abandoning Ukraine, say by imposing tariffs on European goods (which seems to be his only tactic), someone will have to tell him, “Sir, you don’t have the cards.” The EU exports less than 3 percent of its GDP to the United States. And there’s already a public backlash against even the threat of tariffs, as well as the absence of any visible effort on Trump’s part to make good on his campaign promises to bring down grocery prices.

In short, Europe shouldn’t be afraid of Donald Trump. If it wants to save democracy in Ukraine, it can.

And it should. If Ukraine falls, it won’t be the last target. And the rise of right-wing extremist parties in some European nations should make supporters of democracy even more determined to counter anything that might make people believe that these parties represent the future, which means among other things denying Putin anything that can be spun as a victory.

Like tens of millions of Americans, I hate the fact that we need to appeal to foreign leaders to do the right thing, because we know that our own president won’t. But this is Europe’s moment, and we can only hope that the continent’s leaders seize it.

Note the tie

Brexit Blues

Florence (1)

We decided to go to Florence for a few days and so we swang by Portofino, on the Cinque Terre peninsula, to the east of Genua. Nothing special happened, and there's nothing to trigger (yet) another fragment from This is Heaven. Enjoy.

The rain in Spain falls mainly in the plain

Yes, we've been off to Spain for a few days. This picture was taken in Zahara de los Antunes, on the Atlantic coast.

(And while we are at it (picture taken in the same location):)

Brexit no.2

Freedom Fries second anniversary

"The conference room is still occupied by these bloggers."

Seen on a Greek beach

Modernization and progress

Yes, we believe in it. It's perhaps hard to read between the lines of this blog, but it's true: we think that mankind is on the road towards a better future, a future characterized by individual and collective freedom, rationality, scientific and technological progress, common sense, and solidarity. And we are not the only ones. There's at least one other individual, Emmanuel Todd, a demographer working at the National Institute of Demographic Studies in Paris, who thinks along the same lines. He predicted the end of the Soviet Empire (although we did that, too), the demise of America's world dominance (not so difficult), and the Arab Spring (which we did not anticipate). He has given an interview to Der Spiegel. Here are some highlights:

The factors behind the Arab Spring: The rapid increase in literacy, particularly among women, a falling birthrate and a significant decline in the widespread custom of endogamy, or marriage between first cousins. This shows that the Arab societies were on a path toward cultural and mental modernization, in the course of which the individual becomes much more important as an autonomous entity.

The Arab Spring in Tunesia

Liberalization guaranteed? No. At this point, no one can say what the liberal movements in these countries will turn into. Revolutions often end up as something different from what their supporters proclaim at the beginning. Democracies are fragile systems that require deep historic roots. It took almost a century from the time of the French Revolution in 1789 until the democratic form of government, in the form of the Third Republic, finally took shape after France had lost a war against the Germans in 1871. In the interim, there was Napoleon, the royalist restoration and the Second Empire under Napoleon III.

How about other religious and economic factors? The condition for any modernization is demographic modernization. It goes hand-in-hand with a decline in experienced and practiced religiosity. We are already experiencing a de-Islamization of Arab societies, a demystification of the world, as Max Weber called it, and it will inevitably continue, just as a de-Christianization occurred in Europe.

How about the increasing popularity of the veil for women in Turkey and Egypt, for example. Or the retrogression in Iran? The Islamist convulsions are classic companion elements of the disorientation that characterizes every upheaval. But according to the law of history that states that educational progress and a decline in the birth rate are indicators of growing rationalization and secularization, Islamism is a temporary defensive reaction to the shock of modernization.

How about poverty? Of course, one can placate the people with bread and money, but only for a while. Revolutions usually erupt during phases of cultural growth and economic downturn. For me, as a demographer, the key variable is not the per capita gross domestic product but the literacy rate. The British historian Lawrence Stone pointed out this relationship in his study of the English revolution in the 16th and 17th centuries. He saw the critical threshold at 40 to 60 percent.

The Arab culture stagnated in the 13th century already. Why did it take so long? There is a simple explanation, which has the benefit of also being applicable to northern India and China, that is, to three completely differently religious communities: Islam, Hinduism and Confucianism. It has to do with the structure of the traditional family in these regions, with its debasement and with the disenfranchisement of women. And in Mesopotamia, for example, it extends well into the pre-Islamic world. Mohammed, the founder of Islam, granted women far more rights than they have had in most Arab societies to this day. The patrilinear, patrilocal system, in which only male succession is considered valid and newlyweds, preferably cousins in the ideal Arab marriage, live under the roof and authority of the father, inhibits all social progress. The disenfranchisement of women deprives them of the ability to raise their children in a progressive, dynamic fashion. Society calcifies and, in a sense, falls asleep. The powers of the individual cannot develop. The bourgeois achievement of marriage for love, and the free choice of one's partner, replaced the hierarchies of honor in Europe in the 19th century and reinforced the desire for freedom.

Female emancipation with a headscarf? The headscarf debate is missing the point. The number of marriages between cousins is dropping just as spectacularly as the birth rate, thereby blasting away a barrier. The free individual or active citizen can enter the public arena. When more than 90 percent of young people can read and write and have a modicum of education, no traditional authoritarian regime will last for long. Have you noticed how many women are marching along in the protests? Even in Yemen, the most backward country in the Arab world, thousands of women were among the protesters.

Western values... where do you draw the boundaries of the West? In fact, only Great Britain, France and the United States, in that historic order, constitute the core of the West. But not Germany.

Did Germany contribute otherwise? The Reformation -- and, with it, the strengthening of the individual, supported by his knowledge -- and the spread of reading through the printing press -- that's the German contribution. The fight over the Reformation was waged in a journalistic manner, with pamphlets and flyers. The spread of literacy among the masses was invented in Germany. Prussia, and even the small Catholic states, had a higher literacy rate than France early on. Literacy came to France from the east, that is, from Germany. Germany was a nation of education and a constitutional state long before it became a democracy. But Martin Luther also proved that religious reforms did not by any means require the support of a spirit of liberalism.

A nice word about Europe in these troubled times? If the European Union recognizes its diversity, even its anthropological differences, instead of trying to force everyone into the same mold with the false incantation of a shared European civilization, then Europe will also be able to treat the pluralism of cultures in the world in a reasonable and enlightened way. I'm not sure that the United States can do that.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn stark naked (2)

Q: So, what does it all mean?
A: The end of Strauss-Kahn's (DSK) career, of course, and more.
Q: He could deny it; then it's his word against hers.
A: Well, first, he left his cell-phone behind, so he fled the scene. Equally important, a famous person is always guilty until proven innocent, especially in America.
Q: Could it be a conspiracy?
A: Sure, as always. He was the most important threat to Sarkozy's bid for a second term, so Sarkozy could have tried to engineer the whole thing. However...
Q: ...however...?
A: It would have been difficult for Sarkozy to do so, even with the French secret services at his disposal. It's unlikely the maid was an agent, since she was working at the hotel on a permanent basis (presumably), and it was unforeseeable that DSK would stay there...well, who knows, changing my mind, perhaps he's always staying there, in the same suite, in which case they actually could have planted her there, perhaps paying off the service manager to have her assigned to this suite (soon to be dubbed the Kahn suite). And so on and so forth.
Q: But the cell-phone?
A: Élémentaire, cher Watson. DSK will deny this is his phone, but the records, oh là là, the records, the most beautiful cell-phone records in the history of the French secret services.
Q: We're in full conspiracy mode now?
A: I'd say 60-40.
Q: Which way?
A: Don't know yet.
Q: Will the Euro collapse?
A: It's in the cards. Expect a weakening of the Euro tomorrow, just for starters.
Q: Why?
A: Sarkozy's ratings are the lowest in the history of the French presidency. He's unlikely to get re-elected, even if the whole thing was his conspiracy. So it's either a socialist next time (to our American readers: DSK was a member of the Socialist Party, no, the SOCIALIST party), but, with the exception of DSK himself, all other contenders are unreconstructed dinosaurs, real tax-and-spend ideologues, all of them, or it's Marine LePen from the Front National. France's standing as a debtor will be weakened, and the markets might fear its collapse, comparable with other members of the Club Med.
Q: This could mean the end of the Euro.
A: Yes, if France does not get its act together, the Euro will collapse.
Q: How about the extreme right?
A: Yes, good question. Marine LePen, the new, charming leader of the Front National is collecting followers left and right with her compassionate xenophobia and an economic program from the dark ages.
Q: How so?
A: Her economic program calls for France leaving the Euro, and for erecting high import barriers to save domestic jobs. To do that, France would have to leave the European Union.
Q: Is that going to happen?
A: Possibly not, since the French farmers would lose their European subsidies, and so on. But I would not rule out a debt spiral triggered by weakening French credit scores (rising interest rates on French sovereign debt raise the deficit, etc), which leads to France's exit from the Euro, the end of the Euro, the end of the European Union...
Q: The end of the world as we know it?
A: It looks bad. But 500 years from now, the only thing we will remember is that the 3rd world war was caused by a man stepping out of his bath room stark naked.

Mein lieber Freiherr: Baron Guttenberg in trouble

FF has held the Baron in high esteem, raving about him as the Minister of good looks, misunderstood by 12 year old Japanese females who own more than 5 Vuitton bags, and crushed upon by Helen Thomas, the ex-doyenne of the White House press corps. A man with either 9 or 10 first names, and a direct descendant of Bismarck at his heterosexual arm? The man to beat as successor to Chancellor Merkel?  And now what?

The baron...	...with his wife, a née Bismarck
After he met...	...Helen Thomas

Isn't he also a brilliant academic, with a Ph.D. thesis of the highest caliber, raking in a summa cum laude, the highest Ph.D. honor in Germany?  Well, "there's the rub." (Shakespeare, Hamlet's soliloquy) He's accused of plagiarizing. By our own standards, it's borderline, but the German standards rise by the minute, as more and more phrases surface that he has obviously copied without mentioning the source. There's the rub. GOTCHA. He's still good-looking, but...

Can we still play "Doctor"?

The Rolling Stones in the Waldbühne in Berlin

Rohleder's new home in Berlin

Die Neue Zürcher Zeitung has a feature about Alexandra Rohleder. You've heard of her? You didn't? But it's the usual story. She can't trust here eyes. My God, the place is cheap. Isn't a digit missing? And it's in Berlin, Germany. Near the Olympic Stadium, where Hitler opened the Olympic Games of 1936 (we mention this, because it plays an important role in Carl Sagan's novel Contact---the opening is the first TV broadcast in the planet's history, aliens pick up on it, and contact is made).

The usual story. You can get the property for a song. But...if you want to rebuild, there should be grass on the roof, and timber on the walls, since it's also close to one of Le Corbusier's signature buildings. And the existing structure, sorry, we'll have to destroy it. But we can get this young architect. It's the habitual interplay between "we have no money" and "no money spared," that we know so well from our own attempts at home improvement.

Olympic stadium in Berlin

Now, located next to these structures (Olympic Stadium, Corbusier building, Rohleder's dwelling), we have the Berliner Waldbühne, also built by Hitler. It was a wooden structure, an amphitheater built into the woods. Very pretty, with room for an audience of 25,000 people. Good acoustics.

Come 1965. Come the Rolling Stones, and their first concert in Berlin. They are scheduled for the Waldbühne, the largest venue short of the Olympia Stadium itself, where the acoustics would be impossible. 

Now, you need to understand Berlin during the age of The Wall. Berlin was split into an western section (a geographical western island in a communist sea), and the eastern section (separated from us by the wall, but united with the rest of communist Eastern Germany). The wall had been built 4 years before, and there were still all sorts of communal arrangements for the city, including the fast transit system, possibly the first fast transit system in the world, built during the late 19th century. It's called S-Bahn ("S" for "schnell" = fast), and in those days, it was owned and operated by the East (the communists).

Berlin's S-Bahn

Now, you also need to understand that in 1965, 20 years after the war, Germany was still relatively poor, and adolescents typically would not own cars, perhaps not even scooters. Also, Berlin is one of the largest cities in the world geographically, and your scooter would simply not get you to the Waldbühne in time. So you use the S-Bahn.

It's 1965, the concert will start in 2 hours, and you climb onto the communist S-Bahn. And you are not the only one. In fact, there are 25,000 more of you.

So, we get on the S-Bahn, and we are in a good mood. Very good mood. Somehow, people have already started to probe the sturdiness of the S-Bahn accommodations. The seats are wooden, and very solid. And yet, it's amazing what 25,000 adolescents can do when the animal spirits rise.

The planks on the seats come loose. More planks come loose (we're on the way to the Waldbühne now). Other items that had defined the interior of the S-Bahn for 70 years also come loose, all this while we are practicing our understanding of Rolling Stones' songs ("I can't get no satisfaction"---notice the double negation). Upon arrival at the station (the Waldbühne has its own S-Bahn station), not much is left of the interior of our car, or any other car in service.

We enter the Waldbühne, and Mick Jagger comes on the stage. He is in a good mood, his band is in a good mood, and we are in a good mood. The Waldbühne, remember, was a wooden structure, and we had just practiced on such structures. The spirits rise, and while the Stones get going, we get going as well. 

The Rolling Stones at the Waldbühne

Two hours later, nothing is left of the Waldbühne. Nothing. It was rebuilt 30 years later, after the re-unification, in concrete.

I am not making this up.

The Waldbühne rebuilt after reunification

PS: here's a brief period clip from the local TV news:

Rüdesheim am Rhein

We are invited by a friend to spend a few days at his place in Altheim, near Frankfurt, Germany. Where to go, what to visit? We suggest Rüdesheim, because it's not far, it's famous for its Reingau (Rhine) wines, and we've never been there before.

We arrive by ferry from the other bank, and it rains. A tourist trap under a cloud? 

The lunch, schnitzels, is excellent, even though German schnitzels, as a rule, are not thin enough. It is served with a local sauce, Rüdesheimer Sauce, with a hint of the local brandy, Asbach-Uralt. I also order a glass of the local whine, which is, as expected, disappointing (Rüdesheim is simply located too far up north; there is not enough sun for a decent wine).

Rüdesheim, under the rain

What to do next? We take the cable car up the hill, and discover the official monument of the War 70/71.

A moment in time: la Croisette, Cannes, France

Our entry in the New York Times feature A moment in time. The idea is "to create an international mosaic of images" shot at 15:00 UTC (17:00 our time).