Aug 20, 2012

The Kingdom, debt, and Paul Ryan


We received several political emails from Perry (him from the Kingdom). In the first email, he writes:

Perry
On the VP Ryan front: He has our vote.

In the second, he writes:
The US problem is debt. We are floating in debt and O'b [Obama] is simply not willing to address the problem.

And in the third, he writes...

...let's interrupt briefly here, and go to a source that has shown it ability to bring a syllogism home, to quote a source correctly, and to win the Nobel price in economics, and this source writes in its latest post:


Let’s look at what Ryan's budget actually proposes (as opposed to vaguely promises) in its first decade.
VP hopeful Ryan

First, there are a set of tax cuts for higher income brackets and corporations. The Tax Policy Center estimates the cost of these tax cuts, relative to current policy, at $4.3 trillion
Second, there are spending cuts. Of these, approximately $800 billion comes from converting Medicaid into a block grant that grows only with population and overall inflation – a big cut compared with projections that take into account rising health-care costs and an aging population (since the elderly and disabled account for most Medicaid expenses). Another $130 billion comes from doing something similar to food stamps. Then there are odds and ends – Pell grants, job training. Be generous and call all of this $1 trillion in specified cuts.
 
Paul Krugman

On top of this we should add the $700 billion in Medicare cuts that Ryan denounces in Obamacare but nonetheless incorporates into his own plan.
So if we look at the actual policy proposals, they look like this:
Spending cuts: $1.7 trillion
Tax cuts: $4.3 trillion
This is, then, a plan that would increase the deficit by around $2.6 trillion.

That's a syllogism, right (although it may require the addition of some elementary arithmetic (such as one plus one is two) to go through).

 And now let's have a look at Perry's third email, where he writes:
Something has to give. 
Right.

Additional links: Ryan's budget, an estimate of the Tax Policy Center regarding the implications of Ryan's tax cuts for the budget, and a estimate of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities regarding the consequences for spending.

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